42 Years in the Making – is Hezbollah going to war?

Melissa Dib

With over 10,000 citizens displaced and counting, Lebanon is in a state more fragile than during its civil war years of 1975 – 1990. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, warns of the ‘total disaster’ of a war between the Lebanese-based Shia political party, Hezbollah, and Israel. Israeli strikes along the Lebanese border targeting Hezbollah forces as recently as late April continue to fuel fears of an impending war between Israel and the Hezbollah militia, an Iranian-backed military group led by Hassan Nasrallah since 1992. The Lebanese Armed Forces, meant to protect the sovereignty of Lebanon and its people and a direct competitor to Hezbollah, are significantly smaller and weaker. 

Conflict between Israel and Lebanon through military clashes has been festering since 1982, leading to over 1000 deaths and 4000 injuries amongst soldiers and civilians from Lebanon, the context in which Hezbollah was created. Over 900,000 people have been displaced from their homes and one-third of casualties were children. The ongoing threat of war has numerous geo-political and global security implications, with the U.S. a key ally of Israel and taking a lead role in attempting to prevent a full-blown war. A National Security Council official from the United States stated that the priority was that the international community do everything it can to support the United States to weaken the Hezbollah regime in Southern Lebanon and diminish the impending war between the groups. 

How did we get here?

The conflict between the nations has been recurring since 1982, when Israel invaded Lebanon in an attempt to eradicate the Palestinian Liberation organisation embedded within the nation. Hezbollah began to fight for border territory in 1985, leading to a territory conflict that lasted for the next 15 years. By 2006 a second war began where the Hezbollah militia abducted Israeli soldiers. In response, the Israeli military launched an offensive and imposed a blockade with the intent of freeing hostages and destroying the Hezbollah military capabilities. This is a mission that ultimately failed. 

On October 8 of 2023, Hezbollah fired guided rockets into the Shebaa Farms, only one day into the war between Israel and Hamas. Clashes between the nations escalated into Syria and the occupied Golan Heights, and tensions remain at an all-time high.

Where are we now?

Currently, 10 civilians have been killed after two recent Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon. This strike has officially become one of the deadliest attacks against Lebanon in over four months of ‘cross-border exchanges.’ Retaliation came from Hezbollah following strikes that hit Nabatieh in southern Lebanon. The attack killed seven members of the same family.

A rocket barrage fired from Lebanon earlier struck the Israeli town of Safed, killing an Israeli soldier and wounding eight people. Government institutions and schools quickly closed in protest to the attacks. Hezbollah has not claimed responsibility for the attacks, however, still states that they have been firing rockets as part of their strategy for deterrence and in solidarity with Hamas. Whilst analysts claim both sides would like to avoid war, both sides have been engaging in almost daily air-strikes since Israel launched its attack on Gaza in response to the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023. Israeli Defense Force commander Lieutenant Gen. Herzi Halevi emphasised the country's intention to prepare for a war on its Northern front. He is of the belief that if this conflict does not end in war, then it certainly won’t end in a compromise. 

Policy advisor and Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Imad Salamey, believes that Hezbollah is not looking to expand the conflict, but rather, this acts as a ‘tit-for-tat’ with troops on the border, and is an attempt to distract Israeli troops from the conflict in Gaza, given the Hezbollah’s regime close affiliation and support of Hamas. An impending war within Lebanon would secondly not serve the best interests of Israel, according to Salamey, because of the key intention to return displaced Israelis back to their homes, following the initial October Hamas attack. 

What does the International Community Think?

Israel currently faces an amalgamation of international pressures, including punitive action being taken by European Union (EU) member France to ban Israeli settlers from occupying the West Bank.

A United Nations Resolution has called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 called for the removal of armed forces near the Litani River, however, peacekeepers and the Lebanese army are exempt from this resolution.

Despite this, the Hezbollah militia has entrenched itself within the South of Lebanon for decades. Its extensive security apparatus, military experience from fighting in the Syrian civil war and clout amongst Lebanon’s populace makes Hezbollah a force within the nation. Even with the assistance of the UN Peacekeepers, the militia continues to enjoy support and have a stronghold in the region. 

Where do we go from here?

Even though there has been no explicit statement from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah about initiating a large-scale war, it has been alluded to that there will be continuous fights between the nations to act as a distraction from the war with Hamas. Lebanon is currently in an extremely economically volatile and fragile state, with the last four years alone dealing with demolished public institutions, an erosion in the health system, and limited electrical grids whilst simultaneously hosting over 1 million refugees from Syria. Whilst the UN Refugee Agency has been providing emergency supplies to those affected, there are not enough funds to accommodate the substantial amount of people already and who will inevitably be displaced within this conflict. 

Should a full-scale war erupt between Israel and Hezbollah, other regional actors could be pulled into the conflict, such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and even perhaps Iran. United States officials remain concerned over the impending war, and Israel will likely call upon the US to assist in any escalations of war. The priority right now is maintaining the credibility of the Lebanese Armed Forces, which will be vital in weakening the Hezbollah regime.

Melissa Dib is a fifth-year Law and Business (Human Resource Management) student at the University of Technology, Sydney. She is currently an intern at the New South Wales Council for Civil Liberties and Research Assistant at the UTS Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research. Her experience varies from education and tutoring, to mentoring, legal research and advocacy. She has written articles pertaining to employment relations, whistleblower legislation, the Voice Referendum, anti-discrimination and modern slavery. She also is an avid mooter, having competed at intervarsity and national levels and was nominated as a finalist for the 2023 Female Law Student of the Year awards. Melissa is extremely excited to be joining YDS in 2024 as a contributing writer and hopes to blend her passions for law and human rights and international relations when writing up engaging and informative pieces about topics she is interested in and passionate about!