Foreign Policy Case Competition 2024 - Winning Entry by Carlo Nicholls
To: Senator the Hon Penny Wong, Minister for Foreign Affairs
Subject: Incoming U.S. administration’s impact on U.S. foreign policy in Indo-Pacific Region
Prepared by: Carlo Nicholls (First Secretary), The Embassy of Australia in Washington D.C.
Background
The current U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific as articulated by President Biden concerns the maintaining of a region that is “open, connected, prosperous, resilient and secure.” It faces a notable challenge to this vision at present in its geopolitical competition with China. China’s land and maritime disputes in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea threaten to destabilise the region, home to key allies including Japan, the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. President Biden has not ruled out the use of military force in the event of an invasion of Taiwan, considering rising tensions over what China views as its right to reunification. On the economic front, the Biden administration remains engaged in a trade-war with China, having maintained tariffs first imposed by President Trump in 2018. Domestically, economic protectionism and a generally firmer stance on China are receiving a notable degree of bipartisan support. The U.S. has remained an engaged member or observer in multilateral institutions such as the Quad and ASEAN in pursuit of regional goals. It maintains five treaty alliances within the region consisting of Australia, Thailand, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Japan.
Implications on Regional Matters
It is unlikely that Harris’ Indo-Pacific foreign policy would meaningfully diverge from that of President Biden. During her Vice Presidency, she has illustrated a commitment to diplomacy in the region, having represented the U.S. in Asia five times, including at the 2023 ASEAN Summit in Jakarta. Harris has voiced strong support for U.S. allies within the region, notably pledging to defend the Philippines should it face military conflict with China; a prospect which has increased in likelihood in recent months. It is unlikely that Harris would significantly diverge from the current firm position on combatting China’s global influence. She maintains strategically ambiguous support for Taiwan, however unlike President Biden has not expressed explicit military support.
Donald Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy largely concerns great-power competition with China. He has widely pledged to increase tariffs in a second term, signalling the potential for an increase in trade hostilities. Despite expressing strong dissatisfaction with the U.S. position in multilateral institutions globally, Trump sought to strengthen key alliances with a particular focus on combatting the challenge brought by China during his tenure. He played a role in the revitalisation of the Quad, seeing India integrated as a significant partner in the U.S.’ Indo- Pacific strategy. Trump’s position regarding U.S. defence of Taiwan is ambiguous. Defence commitments to the island were increased during his term, however he appears to hold a transactional view of the relationship, and, unlike President Biden, has not explicitly articulated military support.
Both Harris and Trump thus maintain a strong position on China, and therefore it is to be expected that tensions between the U.S. and China will continue to increase in severity. Additionally, both candidates, while maintaining the status-quo policy of strategic ambiguity outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, express a degree of support for Taiwan. It is worth noting, however, that their shared lack of a clear statement of military support may continue to embolden China’s aggression. This may be particularly relevant in a Trump presidency, given recent threats that he would cut military aid to Ukraine, which some argue is symbolic of a similar attitude towards Taiwan. 6 Harris has expressed strong support for regional relationships in the region, suggesting she is committed to multilateral cooperation as a means of meeting regional challenges. Having maintained and in some cases sought to strengthen these relationships, there is reason to believe that Trump broadly supports the maintaining of key alliances. However, his ‘America-First’ isolationist tendencies suggest a transactional view of foreign policy, which may undermine the capacity of regional nations to adequately respond to the notable challenges.
Implications for Australia
Tensions between the U.S. and China are likely to continue to put Australia in a difficult position diplomatically, between its closest ally and largest trading partner. A hostile trade relationship between the two may increase the cost of neutrality, causing Australia to align more strongly either way at the expense of the other. Regarding military conflict in the region, Australia may be expected to aid the U.S. in the event of the invasion of Taiwan; the likelihood of which is as yet unknown. A fragile U.S.-China relationship would also problematise any Australian involvement in such a conflict. The AUKUS treaty is, however, likely to remain intact, having received support from Harris and minimal regard from Trump. Although it is unlikely, AUKUS could in theory be compromised in a Trump administration should he bring an argument regarding the misuse of U.S. security guarantees and decide to enact the termination clause. Ultimately, Australia’s position is likely to be defined in a delicate balance between security and economic alliances.
Carlo Nicholls is a second-year student studying for a Bachelor of Arts (Politics and International Studies) at the University of Melbourne. He is a Corporate Engagement intern at the Australian Institute of International Affairs Victoria with a keen interest in politics, global affairs and foreign languages.
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