Sudan's War: An Endless Struggle for Power in Need of Attention
Laura Innocenti
As Sudan’s brutal civil war sees no end in sight and the country is experiencing the world’s deadliest famine in 40 years, the UN, the media, think tanks and major humanitarian groups have accused the international community of "forgetting" the African country. As of now, the toll is staggering, with 15,500 lives lost and over 11 million people displaced, including 2 million people who have fled to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.
On March 8th, 2024, the UN Security Council adopted a UK-drafted resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities and on April 15th, the International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan in Paris pledged over €2 billion in humanitarian aid to the country. However, the international response has been slow, and the crisis has not received the level of attention and support commensurate with its immense human toll and regional implications.
An Endless Power Struggle
The current conflict in Sudan is a power struggle between two military factions, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia commanded by Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo. The fighting officially erupted in April 2023, when the SAF and the RSF engaged in clashes in the heart of the capital, Khartoum. However, the root of the conflict can be traced back to April 2019, when the SAF and the RSF jointly orchestrated a coup to overthrow Sudan's long-time authoritarian ruler, Omar al-Bashir.
Bashir's three-decade-long dictatorial regime was marked by oppression, the imposition of a strict interpretation of Sharia law, the use of private militias and morality police and the persecution of religious minorities, including Christians, Sunni apostates, Shiites, and others. As his presidency neared its end, Bashir faced mounting popular protests demanding democracy, access to basic services, and a new system of governance. These protests ultimately culminated in the joint SAF and RSF coup in 2019, which led to his ouster.
In the aftermath of Bashir's removal, Sudan was governed by a joint committee of military and civilian representatives, known as the Sovereign Council. Abdalla Hamdok, an economist and development expert with experience in various multilateral organisations, was appointed as the civilian prime minister. However, in late 2021, Hamdok was arrested and removed from office in a coup orchestrated by the SAF and RSF. Although he was briefly reinstated as prime minister in November 2021 after agreeing to concede certain governing powers to the military, Hamdok ultimately resigned in January 2022, leaving Sudan without effective civilian leadership until now.
Refusal to Cooperate
In May 2023, SAF General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan sent a letter to the UN requesting the removal of its envoy, Volker Perthes, from the country. This move signalled a clear refusal by the warring parties to cooperate with international efforts to achieve peace. Shortly after, the SAF abandoned the peace talks brokered by the United States (U.S.) and Saudi Arabia. Due to the mounting pressure from foreign governments and human rights organisations, the SAF and RSF agreed to resume negotiations led by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in late October 2023. However, these talks in Jeddah adjourned once again in December, as neither side were willing to uphold their commitments, including maintaining civility during negotiations and facilitating the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
A month later, the situation worsened as the SAF suspended contact with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African regional bloc, which was attempting to establish an alternative forum for mediation efforts between the warring parties. Despite these various attempts at negotiation, talks between the SAF and RSF have failed to yield any progress thus far. Regional and international actors have taken sides in the conflict, fuelling fears of a return to full-scale civil war and diminishing hopes for the long-awaited democratic transition in Sudan, which had been promised after the ousting of the former regime under Bashir.
Washington stated having taken decisive measures to keep the parties involved in the conflict accountable. These actions included implementing visa restrictions on the leadership of both the SAF and the RSF, as well as individuals affiliated with the former Bashir regime. Additionally, the U.S. imposed sanctions on companies supporting the SAF's and RSF’s operations, while also upgrading its business advisory for Sudan. However, an official report of the meeting between Joe Biden and President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates at the latest G7 summit did not mention the Sudanese crisis, reinforcing the argument that Washington is focusing on resolving other conflicts.
Current Dire Conditions
As the conflict intensifies, humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, and the long-awaited democratic transition seems increasingly unlikely. The country is also gripped by a severe economic crisis. During his brief tenure, Abdalla Hamdok sought to alleviate Sudan’s extreme economic turmoil and present stability to the international community. However, after his removal from office in late 2021, international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund paused much-needed debt relief and other aid to Sudan. Following Hamdok’s resignation, mass demonstrations increased, and the economic situation worsened.
Since April 15, 2023, 7.3 million people have been internally displaced, in addition to the 3.8 million already displaced before the war. According to a recent UN ReliefWeb report, a staggering 24.8 million people are needing humanitarian aid in 2024. Both RSF and SAF forces have used hunger as a weapon of war, with the RSF looting humanitarian warehouses and besieging cities. Many are trapped in a spiral of deteriorating food security, and the UN has warned about the possibility of the “world’s largest hunger crisis”.
Moreover, numerous foreign actors have become involved in the conflict and regional powers are engaging in a proxy war within Sudan, extending military, financial, and political backing to the warring factions. The United Arab Emirates has reportedly shipped weapons instead of aid to Sudan, the Wagner Group has supplied the RSF with missiles, and Iran has allegedly supplied drones to the SAF. The involvement of both Russia and Iran has elevated the conflict to a geopolitical dimension, connecting it to Putin's war in Ukraine, which is partially funded by Sudanese gold, and the competition for influence over the strategic Red Sea coast. Furthermore, the conflict poses a grave risk of destabilising the already fragile nations in the region, triggering massive new waves of migration towards Europe, and providing an opportunity for extremist groups to gain a foothold.
It is important to note that the RSF itself has a dark and troubling history. The RSF originated from the notorious Janjaweed militia, an Arab-majority armed group that was funded by former President Bashir to fight in the Darfur War and suppress southern Sudanese rebels. The RSF has gained a reputation for carrying out brutal attacks across the Darfur region, with accusations of ethnic cleansing, sexual violence, kidnappings, and other heinous crimes. There are already reports of ethnic cleansing occurring, raising the concerning possibility that the cycle of violence and atrocities seen in Darfur could repeat itself if the RSF is not stopped.
Recent Developments
In early July, the RSF achieved significant military gains in Sennar and West Kordofan amid ongoing clashes in North Darfur's capital, El Fasher. In Sennar, the RSF advanced from al-Jazirah, capturing most cities except Sennar city, and seizing control of strategic locations like Jebel Moya and Sinja. These advances disrupted the SAF, forcing them to withdraw from key areas. Meanwhile, in West Kordofan, the RSF swiftly captured El Fula and al-Meiram, key locations near South Sudan. The RSF’s control of these areas secures critical supply routes from South Sudan and strengthens its strategic position. Despite some SAF resistance in Babanusa, the RSF's victories in Sennar and West Kordofan mark a significant shift in the ongoing conflict.
The Clock is Ticking
Since the outbreak of the fighting in April 2023, the current conflict in Sudan has had significant geopolitical implications both regionally and internationally. Alarmingly, the conflict has also taken on an ethnic dimension, which is especially concerning given the violent and repressive histories of the two warring factions.
The international community's response in terms of humanitarian aid and support has been immensely slow, despite the immense scale of the crisis. Crucially, mediation efforts by the international community to achieve a ceasefire have so far failed, as the leaders of the SAF and RSF have refused to halt the violence.
It is essential that the international community and facilitators prioritise resolving the conflict in Sudan and take decisive action to compel the warring parties to collaborate. The ethnic dimension and the histories of the SAF and RSF raise the risk of further atrocities and human rights abuses, underscoring the urgent need for effective intervention and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Laura Innocenti recently completed a Master's degree in International Relations at Monash University and is now a commissioning editor for E-International Relations. With a background in foreign languages and economics, and a strong interest in Russian linguistics and history, her research focuses on the post-Soviet region, particularly from a gender and constructivist perspective. Her MA thesis, titled Legitimating Moscow's 2022 Invasion of Ukraine: The West, Ukraine and the Great Patriotic War, examined Putin's legitimization of the 2022 invasion from an identity-based and gender perspective.
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